Is one box of memory sticks comparable to a suite in Shanghai? Industry insiders: price hikes are fierce, with wealthy individuals hoarding goods with billions of funds

"A box of memory sticks is comparable to an apartment in Shanghai"? Currently, an astonishing scene is unfolding due to the continuous surge in storage market prices.

If gold is considered a traditional safe-haven asset, then in the global market from the second half of 2025 to early 2026, it was the humble memory sticks that significantly outperformed gold prices.

The global DRAM (memory) market is experiencing a "strongest-ever" price increase cycle. Since July 2025, DRAM prices have continued to rise rapidly, with most categories experiencing a price increase of over 100%. According to PCPartPicker data, DDR4 (memory) and DDR5 (memory) prices have increased by 2-3 times within the year.

Entering 2026, this round of price hikes has not eased, and the pace of price changes has accelerated. Wu Shen (pseudonym), an industry insider, told Time Weekly reporters, "The price of memory almost changes daily." Taking 256G DDR5 server memory as an example, the price of a single stick has exceeded 40,000 yuan. "If you purchase 100 sticks at a time and put them in a box, it would cost 4 million yuan," he described. "The value already exceeds many properties in Shanghai." TrendForce's report pointed out that by the end of 2025, PC DRAM contract prices showed a strong upward trend, with the increase significantly expanding. Due to tight capacity, DRAM original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) implemented strategic supply strategies, giving priority to strategic customers, forcing some OEMs to turn to high-priced module manufacturers, resulting in higher costs. The expectation of price hikes drives the demand for inventory. With the establishment of a seller's market, the price increase will further accelerate in the next quarter.

The expectation of price increases is also stimulating arbitrage behavior. Reporters from Time Weekly learned that hoarding activities are spreading from downstream module factories and OEM manufacturers to large traders and financiers. "Those who have money are hoarding in the hundreds of millions," said Wu Shen.

When memory prices are more resilient than gold, and when a box of memory chips is worth more than a Shanghai property, a question arises: in this price hike frenzy of "electronic Moutai", who can truly escape unscathed?

The big-money players who hoard goods and gamble on memory price increases are the first to pass on the impact to the retail end, but the real hoarders are not at the counter.

Reporters from Time Weekly visited Shanghai Bainaohui and Kunshan Saige Electronic Market in succession. Several computer assembly businesses expressed, "The prices have risen too fast." An assembly worker with over 20 years of experience in Kunshan Saige Electronic Market bluntly stated that memory price fluctuations were not drastic in the past, "but this round of price hikes this year is a bit unreasonable.".

The change in price is particularly direct in the end-user experience. An employee from Shanghai Bainaohui explained that the retail price of the mainstream dual-channel 2×16GB memory has been around 1600 yuan, but during this year's 618 shopping festival, this configuration was still priced at around 800 yuan, "essentially doubling in price". In his view, if it is for rigid demand users, they can still consider purchasing, but for non-rigid demand users, "it is not suitable to buy now".

But even with the significant price increase, there has been no obvious impulse to stock up at the retail end. Several system integrators told the reporter of Time Weekly that they now dare not overstock. One system integrator compared the current market situation to high-level fluctuations in the stock market: "You think it's almost at the top, but sometimes it can still go up a bit. The problem is that if it falls back, the risk is all on your own." This uncertainty is changing the inventory strategy of the channel. In the past, system integrators often took hundreds of memory modules directly from wholesalers at one time; now, they prefer to "buy as they sell," keeping only minimal inventory to avoid losses caused by price corrections. The aforementioned businessmen revealed that currently, wholesalers have also significantly slowed down the supply pace to downstream customers, "giving only three or four, or five or six at a time, and they won't let you take more.".

Those who truly dare to hoard goods are not retailers who are highly sensitive to price fluctuations, but rather participants who are closer to the upstream and possess stronger financial capabilities. An industry insider told the reporter of Time Weekly that in niche markets such as server memory, many traders and financiers are hoarding a large amount of goods. They are betting on the continued upward trend of memory prices under the background of sustained production control by original manufacturers.

Zhou Wu (pseudonym), a trader specializing in server memory trading, has recently been frequently posting receipt information on WeChat Moments, mostly featuring "cash high-price purchases" of DDR5 server memory and enterprise-grade SSDs, covering mainstream manufacturers such as Samsung, SK Hynix, Micron, and Changxin, and involving high-capacity specifications such as 64GB, 96GB, and 128GB.

Zhou Wu told the reporter of Time Weekly that his business has fully shifted to DDR5 server memory. "For products with 128GB and 5600 frequency, Samsung and Hynix quote prices ranging from approximately 19,500 to 20,000 yuan; if it's 6400 frequency, the price is basically around 21,000 yuan," he added. He further explained that many of the products available in the market are sourced from disassembled complete machines. If it's a brand-new, unopened original boxed product, the price of 128GB Samsung DDR5 6400 has reached 21,300 yuan.

The supply-demand imbalance remains difficult to alleviate. Compared to other semiconductor sub-sectors, the cyclical nature of memory chips is more pronounced, often following a complete cycle of 3 to 4 years. Looking back over the past decade, the global memory industry has roughly experienced three typical cycles, basically following the cycle pattern of "demand-driven increase - leading manufacturers expand production - oversupply leads to a decline".

The triggering factors for different cycles vary, ranging from the popularization of smartphones, shifts in manufacturing processes and product structures, to the surge in phased demand brought about by the pandemic. However, a common characteristic is that price turning points are almost always driven by changes in consumer electronics demand.

Unlike previous rounds, this round of price recovery is not based on the revival of consumer electronics. Smartphone and PC shipments are still fluctuating within a low range, but memory prices have bucked the trend and strengthened.

According to an IDC consulting report, AI work demands require massive memory support, and one of the core driving factors behind the shortage is that manufacturers are shifting their production capacity from consumer electronics to higher-margin AI-specific memory solutions. Leading memory manufacturers are no longer expanding production capacity for traditional DRAM and NAND used in consumer electronics such as smartphones and PCs, but are instead focusing on high-bandwidth memory (HBM) and high-capacity fifth-generation DDR memory (DDR5) required for AI data centers. This shift has led to limited supply of general-purpose memory modules, driving up the prices of all types of memory.

Among them, the "countercyclical surge" of DDR4 is particularly typical. As mainstream manufacturers such as Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron have successively reduced or even discontinued DDR4 production, shifting their capacity to DDR5 and HBM on a large scale to meet the demand for AI servers, the supply of DDR4 has experienced a steep contraction, and prices have been rapidly pushed up.

While overseas giants control production, the market is also paying attention to whether mainland memory manufacturers possess the ability to "take over".

In fact, Changxin Technology, founded in 2016, provides diversified product solutions such as DRAM wafers, DRAM chips, and DRAM modules. Its products mainly cover the two mainstream series of DDR and LPDDR. Currently, it has completed product coverage and iteration from DDR4, LPDDR4X to DDR5, LPDDR5/5X. According to Omdia data, based on capacity and shipment statistics, Changxin Technology has become the first DRAM manufacturer in China and the fourth in the world.

However, in the short term, this relay approach is unlikely to fully alleviate the supply-demand gap. Xu Jiayuan, an analyst at TrendForce, told the reporter of Time Weekly, "In terms of LPDDR4X, mainland memory manufacturers have plans to expand production in 2026. However, due to the large market gap, based on existing production capacity, it cannot fully meet the demand." Zhang Guobin, a senior semiconductor expert, also told the reporter of Time Weekly that the expansion cycle of memory chips is relatively long, usually taking three to four years, and requires huge capital investment. It is difficult to significantly increase production capacity to meet market demand in the short term, and the supply-demand imbalance is unlikely to be alleviated in the longer term.

The current "panic buying" in the market has led to an imbalance in the supply and demand of global memory chips, which is evolving into a "scramble for goods" led by leading technology companies.

In October 2025, Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix successively disclosed that Sam Altman, CEO of OpenAI, signed a letter of intent with the two companies in Seoul, intending to include them in the "Stargate" data center construction plan. The project has attracted the participation of tech giants such as NVIDIA and Oracle. According to the statement, as the project progresses globally, OpenAI's potential demand for memory chips may reach up to 900,000 wafers per month.

The upstream tension has begun to be transmitted to the procurement side. Technology media outlet Wccftech previously quoted sources as saying that due to the failure to lock in long-term agreements (LTAs) in advance, Google faced the risk of insufficient supply from HBM, and the company had fired a relevant procurement manager. This incident is regarded by the industry as a typical case of "strategic misjudgment" by a leading manufacturer amid the current storage shortage.

The pressure has also been transmitted to the consumer electronics sector. Terminal manufacturers such as Xiaomi have publicly indicated the potential risk of cost increases, while companies like Lenovo have begun to stock up on memory chips in advance.

Regarding module manufacturers, as of the end of the third quarter of 2025, Jiang Bolong (301308.SZ) had a book inventory amount of RMB 8.517 billion. The composition of its inventory, including DRAM chips, DRAM modules, and other products, remains unclear. On January 4th, a reporter from Time Weekly sent a letter to Jiang Bolong regarding the relevant situation, but as of press time, no response had been received.

"The hoarding behavior of downstream manufacturers has played a significant role in fueling the current round of memory chip price hikes," said Zhang Guobin. "Due to expectations of memory chip supply shortages and price increases, downstream manufacturers have increased their procurement efforts and stockpiled inventory in advance to ensure the stability of their own production and cope with potential future cost increases." He further analyzed that some listed memory companies have also increased their hoarding levels by utilizing their financial advantages, which has further caused panic. This panic-driven procurement and channel merchants' reluctance to sell and hoarding behavior have amplified market demand in the short term, exacerbated the imbalance between supply and demand in the market, and resulted in a spiral rise in prices.

Regarding price trends, many industry insiders believe that this cycle has not yet peaked. Xu Jiayuan told the reporter of Time Weekly that in the fourth quarter of 2025, the contract prices for various applications of DRAM generally rose by more than 40%, which is expected to be the quarter with the largest price increase in this upward cycle. "In the first quarter of 2026, the contract prices are expected to increase by more than 15% again, and the increase will gradually converge after the second quarter of 2026, and the upward trend may continue into the second half of 2026."